The health benefits per 1000 children vaccinated vary widely, and are highest in the GAVI-eligible countries
of the Eastern Mediterranean (142 DALYs averted) and African selleck chemical (118 DALYs averted) regions and lowest in the Western Pacific region (13 DALYs averted). The EMR and AFR regions include several high rotavirus mortality countries, while seventy percent of the GAVI-eligible population in the WPR region is represented by Vietnam, a country with good rotavirus surveillance data and a very low rotavirus mortality rate. Annual deaths averted rise sharply between 2011 and 2019 as countries are introducing vaccine into their national immunization systems (Fig. 1). Once full Selleckchem RG7420 introduction and target vaccine coverage is reached in all 72 countries, rotavirus vaccine is expected to prevent approximately 180,000 of the 429,000 estimated rotavirus deaths each year in these countries, reaching a cumulative 2.46 million deaths averted by 2030. Under the base case scenario, the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination is $42/per DALY averted. Cost-effectiveness ratios were highest in the Western Pacific region ($231) and lowest in the Eastern Mediterranean ($30). The World Health Report suggests that an intervention averting one DALY at a cost that is less than the GDP per capita, is very cost-effective. Those averting each DALY at a cost between one and three times the GDP
per capita are cost effective [52]. Based on this threshold, rotavirus vaccination not under the base-case scenario, is very cost-effective in every region. The lowest GDP per capita in each region (representing the poorest country) is higher than the CE ratio for that region, and is higher than the upper value of the confidence range as well, suggesting that vaccination is very cost-effective in all 72 countries. The cost-effectiveness decreases over time as the number of
infants vaccinated increases (Fig. 2). The higher ratios in the first two years are primarily driven by a higher vaccine price and the presence of vaccination programs in relatively lower burden countries of Latin America. As time progresses, the price drops dramatically and higher-burden countries begin to introduce the vaccine, leading to lower, more favorable cost-effectiveness ratios. Under an alternative scenario including all-cause diarrhea mortality, rotavirus vaccination is projected to avert more than 2.9 million deaths associated with all causes of diarrhea, with 60% of the impact occurring in the African region (Table 4). The cost-effectiveness is $39 per DALY averted for all regions combined, with a high of $254 in the Western Pacific region and low of $30 in the African and Eastern Mediterranean regions, meeting the threshold for a very-cost-effective intervention at the global and regional levels.