The spatial differences between simulated and observed results and their temporal variability in the seasonal cycle are quite similar in each grid box. We believe that despite these discrepancies, this 3D CEMBS version 1 can be used to assess any increase or decrease in phytoplankton biomass in selleck chemicals llc the next few years as

a result of the influence of selected meteorological components on the investigated variables. The calculations were carried out assuming the following three scenarios following the ECOOP Project [ECOOP Annual Report Part I p. 141, http://www.ecoop.eu/ecoop_docs.php]: 1) a 3° increase in air temperature; Daily, biweekly, monthly, seasonal and annual variabilities selleck inhibitor of the investigated variables were calculated for 45 years (scenarios 1, 2 and 3). The

starting-point of the numerical simulations was assumed to be the end of 2004 and was followed by the repetition of all ERA40 years. The three scenarios were performed for the repeated forcing data. We chose nine locations within our domain to present phytoplankton biomasses. These stations are: the Gulf of Gdańsk, Gdańsk Deep, Gotland Deep, Bornholm Deep, Gulf of Finland, Gulf of Riga, Gulf of Bothnia, Bothnian Sea and Danish Straits (see Figure 5). Biogeochemical processes in large areas are strongly dependent on the hydrodynamics of the sea, which in turn are driven meteorologically. Based on these scenarios, the long-term variabilities of Cetuximab in vitro temperature, phytoplankton and nutrients in different areas of the Baltic Sea are calculated for 45 years. For the proper operation of the model in the coming years, the relationships between phytoplankton biomass and nutrient concentrations (Figure 6a) and also temperature (Figure 6b) are shown for all nine locations. According to the findings for scenario 1, the distributions of points representing these

connections are in agreement with reality; for scenarios 2 and 3, the distributions are very similar. In accordance with phytoplankton biomass dynamics (Figures 6a, b), the season begins with high total inorganic nitrogen concentrations and a low phytoplankton biomass in the 0–4°C range in the whole Baltic Sea (1). When the spring bloom starts at ca 4°C, nutrients are consumed, the total inorganic nitrogen concentrations become low (2), and the bloom is maintained by the external supply of nutrients. In summer (June–August), the phytoplankton biomass is low (3) as a result of the faster depletion of nutrients. In the second part of the year, in September and October, there is a slight rise in the phytoplankton biomass (4) caused by the increase in nutrient concentrations resulting from the deeper mixing of the water. The growing season ends in December, when the phytoplankton biomass drops to the January–February level (1).